Markets & economy
As bottom-up stock pickers we are less concerned about the market and economy than factors that make individual shares attractive. However, we acknowledge that we need to bear in mind the context in which we must invest. Here we share our long-term views on the market and economy.
Articles in "Markets & economy"
Frontier markets: Innovative industry leaders drive returns
There are many variables to consider when investing in frontier markets, and investors need to weigh up the risks very carefully as they pursue long-term...
What’s in store for interest rates in 2024?
Over the course of 2023, the South African Reserve Bank (SARB) raised the overnight repo rate from 7.00% to a 14-year high of 8.25%.
Eskom: Are brighter days ahead?
What does 2024 have in store for loadshedding? Raine Adams investigates whether there is any light at the end of the dark tunnel.
Geopolitical and fiscal pressures mount as a major global election year kicks off
The market seemed determined to end 2023 on a hopeful note, unwinding the intra-year losses in global stock and bond indices. The rationale rests in the eage...
The inflation conversation is far from over
If the history of debt markets repeats itself, we are now in year three of a new multi-decade bear market for bonds.
The problem with a 12% yield
The notion of a government bond trading at a 12% yield can sound very appealing, but it poses several issues.
Is South Africa winning the inflation battle?
Following the South African Reserve Bank’s (SARB) aggressive near-two-year interest rate hiking cycle, headline inflation in South Africa seems to be getting...
Currency dynamics and returns in emerging and frontier markets
Rami Hajjar considers currency dynamics in emerging and frontier markets, focusing on how currency impacts returns, and how we think about this factor when...
The prospects for global growth
The post-pandemic bounce back of the global economy is losing momentum, and many fear that developed economies may slip into recession.
Shedding dark on the issue of South Africa’s economic growth
South African companies are reallocating billions of rands towards the extraordinary costs associated with loadshedding. Government’s prospects for debt...
Higher-than-expected rate hike improves South Africa’s attractiveness for investors
A repo rate hike of 50 basis points (bps) to 7.75% was announced by South African Reserve Bank Governor Lesetja Kganyago on Thursday, 30 March, at the Moneta...
The new normal: What lies ahead?
In the latest episode of The Allan Gray Podcast, portfolio manager Thalia Petousis and Sandy McGregor reflect on a range of macroeconomic issues as they...
The consequences of South Africa’s greylisting
As anticipated, the Financial Action Task Force (FATF) has added South Africa to the list of jurisdictions under increased monitoring, the greylist, with...
The 2023 Budget: A crisis of credibility in the outer years of the forecast
Thalia Petousis, portfolio manager at Allan Gray, shares her views on the challenges of putting together a credible national budget
Massive market moves: How will they shape the years ahead?
In the latest episode of The Allan Gray Podcast, chief investment officer, Duncan Artus, joins Tamryn Lamb, head of Retail, to unpack why the year was a...
The threat of greylisting
The Financial Action Task Force (FATF) was established in 1989 to coordinate an international effort to combat money laundering. As South Africa’s economy is...
Are inflation-beating returns on the horizon for money market investors in 2023?
The 2022 calendar year was undeniably one of meaningful financial market upheaval, worsened by negative portfolio returns of a quantum that many investors ha...
Economic update: A post-pandemic new normal
2022 saw a massive appreciation of the US dollar against all other currencies and the highest inflation since the early 1980s. These trends, which so dominat...
Global growth prospects continue to deteriorate
During the past quarter inflation has remained elevated. In the US the latest print for August was 8.3%. In Europe it was 10.0% in September. Even though in...
The price of money, the shortage of energy, and the monster of inflation
Thalia Petousis discusses its impact on financial markets, global trade financing and the energy sector, as well as how central banks are now waging a war...
Podcast: Can South African investors continue to count on commodities?
In this episode of The Allan Gray Podcast, portfolio managers Sean Munsie and Rory Kutisker-Jacobson and investment analyst Jithen Pillay discuss the cyclica...
Whither inflation?
In the past 12 months , global inflation has surged. Sandy McGregor discusses the increasingly turbulent response of the financial markets.
On the commodity boom and other South African fables (and foibles)
Just as the economic destruction from the COVID-19 pandemic rose to crisis levels, strong commodity export prices swept in to alleviate South Africa’s fiscal...
Podcast: Can optimism rise from the inflationary ashes?
In conversation with portfolio manager, Thalia Petousis, Sandy McGregor reflects on the very real geopolitical and economic challenges currently affecting th...
Q&A with Allan Gray and Orbis: Positioning our portfolios for an inflationary environment
With rising global inflation and the possibility of a recession on the cards, investors are tasked with protecting their capital and looking for opportunitie...
The SARB hikes rates as food inflation threatens to erode the income of the working class
Raising rates by 50-basis points to take the SA repo rate to 4.75%, the South African Reserve Bank (SARB) delivered what may have been a ‘credibility move’....
Food price inflation: Are we watching “That ‘70s Show”?
Unaffordable food and fuel prices are raising developed market consumer inflation to multi-decade highs, while the Federal Reserve recently announced a...
Understanding the impact of the Ukraine crisis on your investments
Like everyone else, we have been watching with dismay as the war in Ukraine unfolds. While in this piece we address some of the economic and investment...
The long road to debt reform: SA’s Budget underwhelms bond investors
Despite the positivity priced into the Budget from the much-publicised tax revenue overruns, the outcome has positively underwhelmed South African bond...
‘Hopeful Budget’ may strike right notes, but tax clarity and economic reforms are needed
This year’s Budget speech, set to be delivered on 23 February by Finance Minister Enoch Godongwana, is likely to strike an optimistic chord thanks to a numbe...
Q&A: Perspectives and positioning for 2022
Amid a rising inflationary environment and ongoing uncertainty, many investors are struggling to take a long-term view. During the recent Allan Gray webinar,...
Sticking to the slow and steady path of normalisation, for now
At the January meeting of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC), South Africa’s repo rate was raised by another 25 basis points (bps) to 4.00%.
The trouble with municipalities
The extensive infrastructure needs of South African municipalities provide an opportunity for long-term bond investors – such as retirement funds – to help...
The transition into the post-pandemic world
It is remarkable the extent to which the future is hidden from us. We all conduct our lives largely in terms of our experiences in the recent past, assuming...
Global economic recovery slower and more complex than expected
The global recovery from the severe economic contraction in the first half of 2020, which followed the initial outbreak of the pandemic, has proved to be bot...
The divided Committee draws a line in the sand, but gradually
At the November meeting of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC), South Africa’s repo rate was raised by 25 basis points (bps) to 3.75%. The recent dissenting...
Can we expect an interest rate hike in November?
South Africa should prepare for interest rate hikes given the rising inflationary pressures and global energy shortage currently unfolding. Thalia Petousis...
Economic recovery accompanied by a surge in inflation
With increasing vaccinations economic activity is returning to pre-pandemic levels and, while there may be further waves of infection, governments are learni...
Lebanon’s financial collapse
On 17 October 2019, angry demonstrators took to the streets of Lebanon to protest a US$6 per month WhatsApp communication tax. Little did they know that the...
Africa market bond exposure: Understanding the risks and opportunities
Is it worth taking on a bit more risk to achieve potential return? Londa Nxumalo explains the relationship between risk and return in the fixed income contex...
Inflation returns
Prices are on the up in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic. The question is, will deflationary conditions resume as global economic conditions normalise or is...
MPC rates decision: Where to from here?
The South African Reserve Bank’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) today made the unanimous decision to keep the repo rate unchanged at 3.5%.
Q&A with portfolio managers from Allan Gray and Orbis 2021
The global recovery is underway as markets rebound from their March 2020 lows, but the current pandemic is far from over, leaving many investors questioning...
Global recovery underway
The world is recovering from the pandemic and 2021 should see strong global economic growth. The epicentre of the recovery is now the United States, where th...
The state of the economy
In a recent Q&A-style webinar hosted by Allan Gray’s Vuyo Nogantshi, Allan Gray’s Sandy McGregor and the Reserve Bank’s Rashad Cassim and David Fowkes examin...
America as seen from afar
The United States is of critical importance to all investors regardless of where they are domiciled. It is the world’s largest economy, the powerhouse of...
African sovereign debt: Is a reality check looming?
Despite deteriorating economic fundamentals, Africa’s financial markets made a remarkable recovery in 2020. Mark Dunley-Owen discusses the price distortion i...
The impact of COVID-19's second wave
The second wave of the COVID-19 pandemic has interrupted the global recovery following the severe economic contraction experienced during the second quarter ...
COVID-19 and the Fourth Industrial Revolution
In the final instalment of a four-part webinar series, brought to you by the African Development Bank (AfDB) and Allan Gray, our panellists discuss the impac...
African institutional investors
In the third of a four-part webinar series, brought to you by the African Development Bank (AfDB) and Allan Gray, African institutional investors share their...
African sovereign and corporate listed bonds
In the second of a four-part webinar series, brought to you by the African Development Bank (AfDB) and Allan Gray, Celestin Rwabukumba, CEO of the Rwanda Sto...
Volatility in African securities: Evaluating risk and understanding the opportunities
In the first of a four-part webinar series, brought to you by the African Development Bank (AfDB) and Allan Gray, Dr Bartholomew Armah, of the UN Economic...
The dangers of printing money
Modern Monetary Theory, or MMT as it is often called, is a new term for an old idea. Its proponents argue that a state which issues fiat money does not have ...
Do fundamentals still matter?
There is an increasingly wide disconnect between the economic reality on the ground and the valuations reflected in some asset classes globally, begging the...
Searching for value amid Africa’s disappointing equity returns
International equity markets have recovered sharply from the March lows, however African markets made only a modest recovery. As the continent’s leaders face...
COVID-19 continues to rock the global economy
It seems that, with a few exceptions, such as the southern United States, in the Northern Hemisphere the COVID-19 pandemic is well past its peak. Lockdowns a...
COVID-19 cracked the crystal ball
Investors and their advisers continue to grapple with the question of what life, and indeed the world economy, will look like in the next one to three years....
COVID-19: Portfolio, economic and investment update
During February and March, we were active in both the local equity and fixed income markets. This activity reduced during April and May, as we believed the...
The monetary and fiscal response to the COVID-19 crisis
The Coronavirus pandemic has caused a massive disruption of global economic activity without peacetime precedent. In a presentation via Zoom webinar, Sandy...
Q&A: Understanding the economic context in which we must invest
As investors, we must understand the economic consequences of COVID-19 and the impact on different asset classes. Grant Pitt, joint head of Institutional...
Q&A with Allan Gray and Orbis: Investing beyond COVID-19
While financial market volatility as a result of COVID-19 is expected to continue over the short term, the investment teams at Allan Gray and Orbis are focus...
Opinion: Counting the economic cost of South Africa’s lockdown
As South Africans, we want our country to prosper and the quality of life for all those living within our borders to improve. Millions live in total poverty...
The world after the COVID-19 pandemic
We are witnessing a global economic collapse without precedent in modern times. As investors we must think about what the world will look like when the...
COVID-19: Is there long-term value in frontier markets?
At the time of publication, roughly one-third of the world’s population is living under lockdown regulations as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic. In many...
COVID-19: Looking to history to understand potential outcomes
With much of the world in lockdown, one wonders whether it is appropriate to draw on past analogies in thinking about what lies ahead. However, every prior...
COVID-19: Q&A with Allan Gray portfolio managers
With many countries in lockdown, uncertainty prevails. Against this backdrop, many clients are asking for our views on the economic impact, an update on our...
Impact of Moody's downgrade
As a consequence of the decision by Moody’s to lower South Africa’s credit rating from Ba1 to Baa3, all three leading rating agencies now rate South African...
COVID-19: Evaluating market risk versus opportunity
We have managed our portfolios through a range of different crises since 1974. Over the last 20 years, the dotcom collapse in 2001/02, the global financial...
Coronavirus: Taking stock of the state of the markets
The world is changing extremely fast. The global business shutdown is unlike anything seen outside wartime. It is impossible to know the length or depth of t...
How will current market conditions impact our portfolios?
The start of 2020 has been tumultuous as fears about the coronavirus have dominated the news and global markets. The resulting volatility has been compounded...
Making sense of current market conditions
The current market volatility is understandably causing investors much stress. Andrew Lapping examines the impact of coronavirus and the drop of the oil pric...
A downgrade imposes a cost on all South Africans
Reports showed this week that South Africa slipped into its second recession in two years in the final quarter of 2019. Will Moody’s now be even more incline...
2020 Budget: Managing the wage bill and fixing Eskom's credibility
The National Treasury faces formidable challenges in preparing the Budget for the 2020/21 fiscal year, which will be presented on 26 February. Projections...
How could a ratings downgrade affect investors?
Inundated with reports of failing state-owned enterprises and spiralling government debt, investors are understandably concerned ahead of South Africa’s 2020...
Platinum can move the needle on the economic growth SA so desperately needs
Platinum Group Metals (PGMs) are proving to be market darlings: In the last 12 months platinum prices have soared by 30%, palladium prices have doubled, and...
Inflation
Inflation is a phenomenon of great importance to investors. It is subject to intense scrutiny but is not well understood. Sandy McGregor offers his perspecti...
What lies ahead for Africa’s frontier markets?
At the core of our investment philosophy is a belief that markets are not always efficient or rational. We invest in businesses that we consider to be...
Global growth slows
Over the past year, global economic growth has slowed. International trade volumes have contracted. This slowdown has many causes but has been significantly...
What can be done to improve South Africa’s prospects?
When the National Treasury first published its Economic Policy Paper, there was widespread puzzlement as to why yet another such report was needed. It repeat...
An age of anxiety
We are living in an age of anxiety. After decades in which the norm has been optimism, everywhere market participants are extremely nervous about evolving an...
Broadened horizons, local learnings
Leonard Krüger and Nick Ndiritu look at how we have tailored our investment philosophy and process to invest in Frontier Africa markets. They discuss lessons...
Economic update: A state of stagnation
Global economic conditions continue to deteriorate but so far, no major economy has entered a recession. Business conditions in Europe and Japan are best...
Making sense of the rand
Like other emerging market currencies, the rand has seen periods of prolonged fluctuation since September 2018 but has remained relatively stable over time....
South African investors need to fall out of love with equities
South Africa’s equity market capitalisation equates to more than 200% of the country’s GDP, the highest proportion in the world and a level that is simply no...
Trade wars
In recent months, we have observed increasing uncertainty and concern among our clients about what impact rising international tensions, particularly the tra...
Global business conditions deteriorate
Negative news about the global economy persists. Purchasing manager indices continue to signal a widespread deterioration in business conditions. Even in the...
Guarded optimism on new Zimbabwe dollar
This past quarter, Zimbabwe reintroduced its national currency, reviving bitter memories of the hyperinflation period before the infamous Zimbabwe dollar was...
Finding value in frontier African markets
Across corporate boardrooms in South Africa, a number of management teams and institutional investors are grappling with a vexing question: Is investing in...
Global slowdown continues to take its toll
The synchronous global slowdown, which commenced in the last quarter of 2018, continues to take its toll. While Europe is not in recession, it has returned t...
Riding out volatility in African equity markets
Africa’s equity markets delivered disappointing returns in 2018. The MSCI Africa index was down -24%, while the MSCI Africa ex-SA index was down -13%. None o...
South Africa's fiscal dilemma
Faced with sky-high debt, a stagnant economy and disappointing tax collections, South Africa is on an unsustainable fiscal path. Difficult choices have to be...
Global economy losing momentum
After two years of strong synchronous growth the global economy is losing momentum. Almost without exception the most recent purchasing manager’s indices are...
A volatile quarter for emerging market equity and currency markets
Emerging market equity and currency markets had a very volatile quarter. Vulnerabilities, both economic and political, are being exposed as global financial...
Global growth accelerates but emerging markets under pressure
Following a slower first quarter, the rate of global economic growth accelerated during the Northern Hemisphere summer, with Europe being the only notable...
Increasing policy uncertainty
With few exceptions, notably India, most countries experienced slower economic growth in the first quarter of 2018. Anecdotal evidence suggests that that the...
SA needs to unlock its 'demographic dividend' by getting the private sector to invest
South Africa needs to stop looking to government spending as the catalyst for economic growth and should instead foster a more conducive environment for...
Zimbabwe in transition
Zimbabwe’s election on 30 July 2018 heralds a new beginning after the abrupt end to President Robert Mugabe’s 37-year reign in November 2017. We are not...
Approaching a tipping point?
After a strong start to the year, global investors have been spooked by a diverse combination of developments, including a slowdown in global economic...
Business confidence improves in South Africa
After 18 months of accelerating growth, the momentum of the expansion of the global economy slowed in the first quarter of 2018. It is noteworthy that an...
Demystifying Africa’s debt markets
Investors seeking diversification outside of South Africa can easily overlook the investment opportunities in other African markets. It is tempting to start ...
Fixing the South African economy
If we can make necessary changes domestically, favourable global business conditions will support a rapid economic turnaround. Now that the ANC conference is...
What can be done to address SA’s fiscal crisis?
Global economic activity continued to gain momentum in the last quarter of 2017. Global purchasing manager’s indices, which are a good barometer of current a...
Facing a fiscal crisis
The synchronised global economic expansion continues to gain momentum. World trade is growing and increasing demand is putting upward pressure on commodity...
Is now the time to invest?
Is it time to put your money under the mattress or is it time to invest? Watch this 7-min clip with Andrew Lapping, our chief investment officer, and Todd...
Invest in stocks with dividends, but put stop losses in place
It is always a good time to invest, the question is where...
Value investing in Nigeria
Active managers in Africa and frontier markets have to counter the perceived higher-risk of investing in volatile markets prone to political and economic...
The economics of taxation
An efficient tax system is a necessary feature of a modern state. Taxes have always been a focus of political concern, even when, by modern standards...
SA economy in the doldrums as the rest of the world picks up
Since January, domestic demand in South Africa has been very weak, the clearest evidence of which has been poor retail sales. The consumer is no longer in a...
Valuation of Nigerian and Zimbabwean holdings in the Allan Gray Africa ex-SA Equity Fund
The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) has established a new foreign exchange (FX) platform for investors and exporters, effective 24 April 2017. The exchange...
South Africa’s economic outlook deteriorates
Since the Northern Hemisphere summer of 2016, there has been a worldwide economic upturn. This is the first period of synchronous global growth since the...
Nigeria: Finding opportunities where others fear to tread
Wow, that valuation changed quickly! A few years ago investors were very excited about investing in Africa outside of South Africa. People spoke of Africa...
Should you have bonds in your portfolio?
Bonds are boring, or so the saying goes. A better interpretation is that bond returns are less volatile than equity returns, most of the time...
Tough times for African equities
Most African equity markets had a difficult 2016, generating negative dollar returns. The worst performers were Egypt and Nigeria, which fell 47% and 41%...
What is the sweet spot for the oil price?
In the face of an OPEC oil production cut, shale producer activity and US President Donald Trump proposing various far-reaching changes what can we expect fr...
The winds of change
While the election of Donald Trump as the next president of the United States was not expected by investors, it does not seem to have been unwelcome: both t...
A changing world
The political shocks of 2016 are a manifestation of rising public discontent about prevailing economic and social conditions. Sandy McGregor provides some...
Investing in Africa’s debt markets
Patient capital dedicated to Africa’s capital markets is scarce, especially during economic or political downturns. Nick Ndiritu explains how long-term...
How to think about the rand when making investment decisions
Over the last few years we have been concerned about the strength of the rand and our portfolios have been positioned for currency weakness. One of our...
How to think about risk in Nigeria
Our investment approach does not change even during periods of extreme market volatility. As always, we carefully consider investment opportunities where ris...
The economic consequences of political decisions
The vote by the British electorate in support of leaving the European Union (EU) took markets by surprise. The immediate impact was a strengthening of the US...
Gold: A history of its price
Inventories play a significant role in the pricing of commodities: when they are low prices tend to rise, while excessive inventories depress prices. However...
Managing portfolios in times of uncertainty
My inbox is filling up with commentary about the impact of Brexit. Some of the commentary is of debatable long-term value and with news of this nature it tak...
Uncertainty persists
The increased uncertainty that arose in December of last year has persisted throughout the first quarter of 2016. The current political climate and the threa...
The triumph of the bureaucrats
There is a widespread lament that economic growth is disappointing. While demographics and structural problems are largely to blame, the increasing cost of...
Consumption trends in emerging markets: Opportunities and pitfalls
Looking to capitalise on the rise of the emerging market consumer? Beware of the potential pitfalls .
Investing in Africa defies a simple narrative
Our Equity, Balanced and Stable Funds are allowed to invest up to 5% in Africa outside of South Africa. Some investors may choose to invest directly into...
Secular stagnation: The new normal?
Economists are engaged in an interesting debate about economic growth and what has been described as 'secular stagnation'. The issue has received widespread...
What do low global bond yields mean for South African investors?
Adapted from the Chief Investment Officer’s comments, which will appear in the Allan Gray Unit Trust Annual Report, 2014. More than half of global government...
The collapse of the oil price and its consequences
The dramatic collapse of oil prices at the end of last year caught most market participants by surprise. For three and a half years, between February 2011 an...
What's wrong with the South African economy
After growing strongly for 10 years, since 2012 the South African economy has been stagnating, which prompts the question: What has gone wrong and how can th...
Understanding the risk of loss in Africa ex-SA
A small percentage of the foreign component of our Balanced and Stable Funds is invested in Africa and investors looking for greater exposure to the region c...
Time to review your equity exposure?
Adapted from the Chief Investment Officer’s comments, which will appear in the Allan Gray Unit Trust Annual Report, 2013. We aim to grow our clients’ wealth...
A simple checklist for domestic asset allocation
I recently read the fascinating book ‘The Success Equation: Untangling luck in Business, Sports and Investing’1, which explores, how much of one’s success or...
The Allan Gray Africa Equity Fund celebrates 15 years
When the Allan Gray Africa Equity Fund (the Fund) was launched on 1 July 1998 it was the first unitised product in which Allan Gray Proprietary Limited was...
Not the time to relax risk appetite
In his 1988 annual letter to shareholders, Warren Buffett wrote: ‘We have no idea how long the excesses will last, nor do we know what will change the...
The nature of contrarian investing
The average investor cannot avoid being bullish at market tops and bearish at bottoms. This produces periods of speculation and panic within the normal up an...
The trend is your friend till it bends at the end
For some time we have been concerned about the sustainability and unbalanced nature of consumption growth in South Africa. I don’t believe you can consume,...
Looking back at 2011 and preparing for the years ahead
South Africa has thus far been spared the crushing austerity measures affecting Europe. Three important factors have been in our favour so far: a decade of...
An era of high global earnings
Company profits are currently at historic highs, but we do not know with any certainty where they are headed. Although it is entirely possible for global and...
What we know for sure
At Allan Gray we prefer not to opine over reasons for short-term movements in stock markets and share prices and we shy away from predicting changes in the...
Can the level of interest rates be used to reliably predict investment returns?
Local and global short-term interest rates are at low levels. This has led to questions about the rationale for holding cash both locally and offshore. We ha...
China's Malthusian challenge
Two years since the global financial crisis and commodity prices are back at the record levels of June 2008. This growth has been about five years quicker th...
The long-term outlook for the South African bond market
As a bond investor you need to ask yourself two questions: are your inflation expectations reasonable, and will the potential real return be sufficient? Andr...
Africa's investable universe
We expect a change in prudential investment regulations to allow pension fund investors to invest up to 5% of their assets in Africa, in addition to other...
Deflation
It seems the world may divide into two distinct camps: the mature economies gripped by deflation and stagnation, and the emerging markets, which continue to...
Welcoming the world to South Africa (but are they here to stay...?)
For most of the time since our first democratic election in 1994, foreign investors have been net buyers of companies listed on the JSE. They are now...
Another view
Governments around the world are engaged in significant fiscal and monetary stimulus. But there is some doubt about whether their efforts will improve the re...
The triumph of the markets
It is the nature of markets to reward success and eliminate what is unsustainable. During the past year we have seen a dramatic manifestation of this process...
