Markets & economy
Articles in "Markets & economy"
Economic update: A state of stagnation
Global economic conditions continue to deteriorate but so far, no major economy has entered a recession. Business conditions in Europe and Japan are best...
Making sense of the rand
Like other emerging market currencies, the rand has seen periods of prolonged fluctuation since September 2018 but has remained relatively stable over time....
South African investors need to fall out of love with equities
South Africa’s equity market capitalisation equates to more than 200% of the country’s GDP, the highest proportion in the world and a level that is simply no...
Trade wars
In recent months, we have observed increasing uncertainty and concern among our clients about what impact rising international tensions, particularly the tra...
Global business conditions deteriorate
Negative news about the global economy persists. Purchasing manager indices continue to signal a widespread deterioration in business conditions. Even in the...
Guarded optimism on new Zimbabwe dollar
This past quarter, Zimbabwe reintroduced its national currency, reviving bitter memories of the hyperinflation period before the infamous Zimbabwe dollar was...
Finding value in frontier African markets
Across corporate boardrooms in South Africa, a number of management teams and institutional investors are grappling with a vexing question: Is investing in...
Global slowdown continues to take its toll
The synchronous global slowdown, which commenced in the last quarter of 2018, continues to take its toll. While Europe is not in recession, it has returned t...
Riding out volatility in African equity markets
Africa’s equity markets delivered disappointing returns in 2018. The MSCI Africa index was down -24%, while the MSCI Africa ex-SA index was down -13%. None o...
South Africa's fiscal dilemma
Faced with sky-high debt, a stagnant economy and disappointing tax collections, South Africa is on an unsustainable fiscal path. Difficult choices have to be...
Global economy losing momentum
After two years of strong synchronous growth the global economy is losing momentum. Almost without exception the most recent purchasing manager’s indices are...
A volatile quarter for emerging market equity and currency markets
Emerging market equity and currency markets had a very volatile quarter. Vulnerabilities, both economic and political, are being exposed as global financial...
Global growth accelerates but emerging markets under pressure
Following a slower first quarter, the rate of global economic growth accelerated during the Northern Hemisphere summer, with Europe being the only notable...
Increasing policy uncertainty
With few exceptions, notably India, most countries experienced slower economic growth in the first quarter of 2018. Anecdotal evidence suggests that that the...
SA needs to unlock its 'demographic dividend' by getting the private sector to invest
South Africa needs to stop looking to government spending as the catalyst for economic growth and should instead foster a more conducive environment for...
Zimbabwe in transition
Zimbabwe’s election on 30 July 2018 heralds a new beginning after the abrupt end to President Robert Mugabe’s 37-year reign in November 2017. We are not...
Approaching a tipping point?
After a strong start to the year, global investors have been spooked by a diverse combination of developments, including a slowdown in global economic...
Business confidence improves in South Africa
After 18 months of accelerating growth, the momentum of the expansion of the global economy slowed in the first quarter of 2018. It is noteworthy that an...
Demystifying Africa’s debt markets
Investors seeking diversification outside of South Africa can easily overlook the investment opportunities in other African markets. It is tempting to start ...
Fixing the South African economy
If we can make necessary changes domestically, favourable global business conditions will support a rapid economic turnaround. Now that the ANC conference is...
What can be done to address SA’s fiscal crisis?
Global economic activity continued to gain momentum in the last quarter of 2017. Global purchasing manager’s indices, which are a good barometer of current a...
Facing a fiscal crisis
The synchronised global economic expansion continues to gain momentum. World trade is growing and increasing demand is putting upward pressure on commodity...
Is now the time to invest?
Is it time to put your money under the mattress or is it time to invest? Watch this 7-min clip with Andrew Lapping, our chief investment officer, and Todd...
Invest in stocks with dividends, but put stop losses in place
It is always a good time to invest, the question is where...
Value investing in Nigeria
Active managers in Africa and frontier markets have to counter the perceived higher-risk of investing in volatile markets prone to political and economic...
The economics of taxation
An efficient tax system is a necessary feature of a modern state. Taxes have always been a focus of political concern, even when, by modern standards...
SA economy in the doldrums as the rest of the world picks up
Since January, domestic demand in South Africa has been very weak, the clearest evidence of which has been poor retail sales. The consumer is no longer in a...
Valuation of Nigerian and Zimbabwean holdings in the Allan Gray Africa ex-SA Equity Fund
The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) has established a new foreign exchange (FX) platform for investors and exporters, effective 24 April 2017. The exchange...
South Africa’s economic outlook deteriorates
Since the Northern Hemisphere summer of 2016, there has been a worldwide economic upturn. This is the first period of synchronous global growth since the...
Nigeria: Finding opportunities where others fear to tread
Wow, that valuation changed quickly! A few years ago investors were very excited about investing in Africa outside of South Africa. People spoke of Africa...
Should you have bonds in your portfolio?
Bonds are boring, or so the saying goes. A better interpretation is that bond returns are less volatile than equity returns, most of the time...
Tough times for African equities
Most African equity markets had a difficult 2016, generating negative dollar returns. The worst performers were Egypt and Nigeria, which fell 47% and 41%...
LISTEN : What is the sweet spot for the oil price?
In the face of an OPEC oil production cut, shale producer activity and US President Donald Trump proposing various far-reaching changes what can we expect fr...
The winds of change
While the election of Donald Trump as the next president of the United States was not expected by investors, it does not seem to have been unwelcome: both t...
A changing world
The political shocks of 2016 are a manifestation of rising public discontent about prevailing economic and social conditions. Sandy McGregor provides some...
Investing in Africa’s debt markets
Patient capital dedicated to Africa’s capital markets is scarce, especially during economic or political downturns. Nick Ndiritu explains how long-term...
WATCH : How to think about the rand when making investment decisions
Over the last few years we have been concerned about the strength of the rand and our portfolios have been positioned for currency weakness. One of our...
How to think about risk in Nigeria
Our investment approach does not change even during periods of extreme market volatility. As always, we carefully consider investment opportunities where ris...
The economic consequences of political decisions
The vote by the British electorate in support of leaving the European Union (EU) took markets by surprise. The immediate impact was a strengthening of the US...
Gold: A history of its price
Inventories play a significant role in the pricing of commodities: when they are low prices tend to rise, while excessive inventories depress prices. However...
Managing portfolios in times of uncertainty
My inbox is filling up with commentary about the impact of Brexit. Some of the commentary is of debatable long-term value and with news of this nature it tak...
Uncertainty persists
The increased uncertainty that arose in December of last year has persisted throughout the first quarter of 2016. The current political climate and the threa...
The triumph of the bureaucrats
There is a widespread lament that economic growth is disappointing. While demographics and structural problems are largely to blame, the increasing cost of...
Consumption trends in emerging markets: Opportunities and pitfalls
Looking to capitalise on the rise of the emerging market consumer? Beware of the potential pitfalls .
Investing in Africa defies a simple narrative
Our Equity, Balanced and Stable Funds are allowed to invest up to 5% in Africa outside of South Africa. Some investors may choose to invest directly into...
Secular stagnation: The new normal?
Economists are engaged in an interesting debate about economic growth and what has been described as 'secular stagnation'. The issue has received widespread...
What do low global bond yields mean for South African investors?
Adapted from the Chief Investment Officer’s comments, which will appear in the Allan Gray Unit Trust Annual Report, 2014. More than half of global government...
The collapse of the oil price and its consequences
The dramatic collapse of oil prices at the end of last year caught most market participants by surprise. For three and a half years, between February 2011 an...
What's wrong with the South African economy
After growing strongly for 10 years, since 2012 the South African economy has been stagnating, which prompts the question: What has gone wrong and how can th...
Understanding the risk of loss in Africa ex-SA
A small percentage of the foreign component of our Balanced and Stable Funds is invested in Africa and investors looking for greater exposure to the region c...
Time to review your equity exposure?
Adapted from the Chief Investment Officer’s comments, which will appear in the Allan Gray Unit Trust Annual Report, 2013. We aim to grow our clients’ wealth...
A simple checklist for domestic asset allocation
I recently read the fascinating book ‘The Success Equation: Untangling luck in Business, Sports and Investing’1, which explores, how much of one’s success or...
The Allan Gray Africa Equity Fund celebrates 15 years
When the Allan Gray Africa Equity Fund (the Fund) was launched on 1 July 1998 it was the first unitised product in which Allan Gray Proprietary Limited was...
Not the time to relax risk appetite
In his 1988 annual letter to shareholders, Warren Buffett wrote: ‘We have no idea how long the excesses will last, nor do we know what will change the...
The nature of contrarian investing
The average investor cannot avoid being bullish at market tops and bearish at bottoms. This produces periods of speculation and panic within the normal up an...
The trend is your friend till it bends at the end
For some time we have been concerned about the sustainability and unbalanced nature of consumption growth in South Africa. I don’t believe you can consume,...
Looking back at 2011 and preparing for the years ahead
South Africa has thus far been spared the crushing austerity measures affecting Europe. Three important factors have been in our favour so far: a decade of...
An era of high global earnings
Company profits are currently at historic highs, but we do not know with any certainty where they are headed. Although it is entirely possible for global and...
What we know for sure
At Allan Gray we prefer not to opine over reasons for short-term movements in stock markets and share prices and we shy away from predicting changes in the...
Can the level of interest rates be used to reliably predict investment returns?
Local and global short-term interest rates are at low levels. This has led to questions about the rationale for holding cash both locally and offshore. We ha...
China's Malthusian challenge
Two years since the global financial crisis and commodity prices are back at the record levels of June 2008. This growth has been about five years quicker th...
The long-term outlook for the South African bond market
As a bond investor you need to ask yourself two questions: are your inflation expectations reasonable, and will the potential real return be sufficient? Andr...
Africa's investable universe
We expect a change in prudential investment regulations to allow pension fund investors to invest up to 5% of their assets in Africa, in addition to other...
Deflation
It seems the world may divide into two distinct camps: the mature economies gripped by deflation and stagnation, and the emerging markets, which continue to...
Welcoming the world to South Africa (but are they here to stay...?)
For most of the time since our first democratic election in 1994, foreign investors have been net buyers of companies listed on the JSE. They are now...
Another view
Governments around the world are engaged in significant fiscal and monetary stimulus. But there is some doubt about whether their efforts will improve the re...
The triumph of the markets
It is the nature of markets to reward success and eliminate what is unsustainable. During the past year we have seen a dramatic manifestation of this process...
