Articles tagged as "Inflation"
South Africa seems set for a lower inflation target
The second quarter of the year offered investors a bumpy ride, as tariff threats and rising geopolitical tension played out in markets. Portfolio manager Sea...
In safe hands with the Allan Gray Balanced Fund
The Allan Gray Balanced Fund launched in October of 1999 with a unit price of R10, offering retail investors access to a diversified, multi-asset class,...
How to keep the lid on lifestyle creep
In recent years, central banks have grappled with curtailing inflation and easing interest rates at a reasonable pace.
Could 2025 be the most consequential year in our lifetime?
In a keynote address at Allan Gray Fund Provider 2025, Irish economist David McWilliams discussed a range of global developments, such as the return of Trump...
Navigating South Africa’s post-election economy
Sentiment around South Africa’s prospects improved significantly in 2024, but there are still numerous, complex, structural challenges weighing on the countr...
Rethinking global inflation and rates after the 2024 super-election year
The introduction of the Allan Gray Income Fund in May 2024 has broadened Allan Gray’s offering, providing a more comprehensive selection of lower-risk...
Four rules for making your income last through retirement
Retirees who primarily rely on their living annuity investments to provide them with a steady stream of income are often haunted by the question: How do I ma...
The bonfire of the incumbents
As we commented early in 2024, global dissatisfaction regarding inflation and harsh economic realities has coincided with the phenomenon of a spike in the...
After four years, South Africa gets repo rate relief
On 19 September, the South African Reserve Bank (SARB) cut interest rates for the first time in four years – lowering the overnight rate of interest from 8.2...
How the great election year has shaped financial markets
Global elections have been a dominant force this year, with sentiment around polling and election results driving volatility in many markets.
Election fever seizes the globe
According to Deutsche Bank, 2024 will see the most people vote in a single year in recorded history. As speculation fuels heightened uncertainty around the...
Building multi-asset portfolios in an uncertain world
Periods of heightened uncertainty are inevitable when you are investing over the long term. And when it is not clear when or how things might change,...
Navigating investment challenges: The interplay between skill and luck
Decision strategist and best-selling author Annie Duke advises focusing on a good process when trying to make the best decisions in highly uncertain scenario...
2024 Budget: Walking a tightrope
The stage was set for a much-anticipated 2024 Budget speech during an election year.
What’s in store for interest rates in 2024?
Over the course of 2023, the South African Reserve Bank (SARB) raised the overnight repo rate from 7.00% to a 14-year high of 8.25%.
The key lesson from 2023: Uncertainty is ever-present
Rory Kutisker-Jacobson takes stock of the key local and global market events of 2023 and highlights some of the themes that are likely to shape the year ahea...
Geopolitical and fiscal pressures mount as a major global election year kicks off
The market seemed determined to end 2023 on a hopeful note, unwinding the intra-year losses in global stock and bond indices. The rationale rests in the eage...
Investing for education in an inflationary environment
Parents can expect little relief in 2024, with reports suggesting that fee hikes for South African schools will yet again come in above general inflation,...
How to be a little less wrong – with James Aitken
When it comes to investing, marginal improvements can make a significant difference to investment returns over time. In conversation with Allan Gray’s chief...
The inflation conversation is far from over
If the history of debt markets repeats itself, we are now in year three of a new multi-decade bear market for bonds.
From Johannesburg to Japan: How to resist the magnetism of the magnificent seven
In conversation with Tamryn Lamb, Allan Gray portfolio manager Tim Acker and Graeme Forster, portfolio manager at our offshore partner, Orbis, explain why we...
Is South Africa winning the inflation battle?
Following the South African Reserve Bank’s (SARB) aggressive near-two-year interest rate hiking cycle, headline inflation in South Africa seems to be getting...
Local investment update: Balancing caution and optimism
In recent years, South Africa’s numerous, well-known economic challenges have fuelled declining investor sentiment and led many to doubt the local market’s...
Three golden rules for achieving long-term, real investment returns
Whether you are accumulating capital for retirement, school or university expenses for your children or simply trying to ensure that you have money saved for...
Currency dynamics and returns in emerging and frontier markets
Rami Hajjar considers currency dynamics in emerging and frontier markets, focusing on how currency impacts returns, and how we think about this factor when...
The prospects for global growth
The post-pandemic bounce back of the global economy is losing momentum, and many fear that developed economies may slip into recession.
Teenagers, curfews & interest rates
As interest rates have risen, we have seen a collapse in the valuations of a range of profitless tech companies. More recently we have seen a crisis in the ...
Are we entering a global stockpicker’s paradise?
In conversation with portfolio manager Rory Kutisker-Jacobson, Matthew Spencer from our offshore partner, Orbis, explains why the Investment team believes th...
Orbis Global Balanced: Investing through the cycles
History seemingly often repeats itself, but it might be dangerous to assume that the investing landscape over the next 20 years will be similar to that of th...
Shedding dark on the issue of South Africa’s economic growth
South African companies are reallocating billions of rands towards the extraordinary costs associated with loadshedding. Government’s prospects for debt...
Why South Africa is still attractive for investors
In conversation with portfolio manager Tim Acker, investment analysts Siphesihle Zwane and Jithen Pillay discuss the impact of the major local challenges on...
Regime change and the rise of the stockpicker
Alec Cutler chats to Bloomberg’s Merryn Somerset Webb about the impact of central bank and government intervention, the future of inflation and why being a...
How to plan for an emergency fund in 2023
How should investors approach unexpected expenses in 2023? Gladness Rupare, investment specialist, Sandy McGregor, portfolio manager, and Emily Gray, busines...
The new normal: What lies ahead?
In the latest episode of The Allan Gray Podcast, portfolio manager Thalia Petousis and Sandy McGregor reflect on a range of macroeconomic issues as they...
2023 Budget speech update
The 2023 Budget speech was delivered against the backdrop of high living costs, a dismal unemployment rate and intensive loadshedding crippling businesses, a...
Four contrarian investment questions to ask in 2023
Jacques Plaut, portfolio manager, shares the four questions investors should consider this year and discusses how the Allan Gray Balanced Fund is positioned ...
The 2023 Budget: A crisis of credibility in the outer years of the forecast
Thalia Petousis, portfolio manager at Allan Gray, shares her views on the challenges of putting together a credible national budget
Are inflation-beating returns on the horizon for money market investors in 2023?
The 2022 calendar year was undeniably one of meaningful financial market upheaval, worsened by negative portfolio returns of a quantum that many investors ha...
Was 2022 a secular turning point and if so, what does it mean for the years ahead?
In his first investment update of 2023, Duncan Artus discusses the current investment context and how it differs from the past, shares a review of 2022 and...
Economic update: A post-pandemic new normal
2022 saw a massive appreciation of the US dollar against all other currencies and the highest inflation since the early 1980s. These trends, which so dominat...
Do local banks offer value in an inflationary world?
In the current period of high global inflation and slowing economic activity, how will the local banking sector fare? Are there still long-term opportunities...
Q&A: Allan Gray and Orbis investment update
After an eventful year, many investors are feeling uncertain about how to position their portfolios to fare well in 2023. At the recent Allan Gray and Orbis...
Investment update: How to invest in a changing world
At Allan Gray we are bottom-up investors, but we want to be on the right side of long-term trends, particularly at secular turning points. During the recent...
Global growth prospects continue to deteriorate
During the past quarter inflation has remained elevated. In the US the latest print for August was 8.3%. In Europe it was 10.0% in September. Even though in...
The price of money, the shortage of energy, and the monster of inflation
Thalia Petousis discusses its impact on financial markets, global trade financing and the energy sector, as well as how central banks are now waging a war...
Orbis Global Balanced: Beware the Great and Powerful Dollar
The US dollar has rallied significantly over the course of this year, leaving other currencies in its wake. Alec Cutler, from our offshore partner, Orbis,...
How to invest in an inflationary, energy-short and increasingly divided world
At Allan Gray, we are bottom-up investors, but we want to be on the right side of long-term trends, particularly at secular turning points. One way is to...
Podcast: Do old investment truths still hold in the current global environment?
In the latest episode of The Allan Gray Podcast, hosted by Allan Gray portfolio manager Rory Kutisker-Jacobson, Dan Brocklebank, head of Orbis UK, reflects o...
Why financial optimism matters and how to find it when the world is a mess
Lise-Mari Crafford, head of ManCo Distribution, discusses why being optimistic about our personal finances matters, and how we can look on the bright side wh...
Podcast: Can South African investors continue to count on commodities?
In this episode of The Allan Gray Podcast, portfolio managers Sean Munsie and Rory Kutisker-Jacobson and investment analyst Jithen Pillay discuss the cyclica...
Whither inflation?
In the past 12 months , global inflation has surged. Sandy McGregor discusses the increasingly turbulent response of the financial markets.
Podcast: Can optimism rise from the inflationary ashes?
In conversation with portfolio manager, Thalia Petousis, Sandy McGregor reflects on the very real geopolitical and economic challenges currently affecting th...
Q&A with Allan Gray and Orbis: Positioning our portfolios for an inflationary environment
With rising global inflation and the possibility of a recession on the cards, investors are tasked with protecting their capital and looking for opportunitie...
Saving in a rising interest rate environment
With interest rates and inflation on the rise, Cedrick Pila, regional manager, discusses how investors can achieve real returns and protect their savings and...
Podcast: How to think about investing in an energy-short and volatile world
From the global technology stock sell-off and rising inflation, to the war in Ukraine exacerbating a global energy crisis, investors are tasked with navigati...
Local investment update: Always pay the right price
Jacques Plaut and Duncan Artus discuss the positioning of our equity and multi-asset funds given the pre-existing trends exacerbated by the war in Ukraine....
The SARB hikes rates as food inflation threatens to erode the income of the working class
Raising rates by 50-basis points to take the SA repo rate to 4.75%, the South African Reserve Bank (SARB) delivered what may have been a ‘credibility move’....
Food price inflation: Are we watching “That ‘70s Show”?
Unaffordable food and fuel prices are raising developed market consumer inflation to multi-decade highs, while the Federal Reserve recently announced a...
What price are we paying for the Russia-Ukraine conflict?
As investors brace themselves for the impact of higher prices on their portfolios, Horacia Naidoo-McCarthy discusses how the prevailing environment may impac...
Q&A: Perspectives and positioning for 2022
Amid a rising inflationary environment and ongoing uncertainty, many investors are struggling to take a long-term view. During the recent Allan Gray webinar,...
The power of perspective in an expensive market
Historically, every decade has its “poster child” asset class. In the 70s it was gold, the 80s Japanese shares, and materials shares in the noughties. At the...
Save now for your child’s education to avoid future pain
Putting aside money every month to fund your child’s future studies may seem like a huge ask, but it will be worth it in the end, especially in light of...
Sticking to the slow and steady path of normalisation, for now
At the January meeting of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC), South Africa’s repo rate was raised by another 25 basis points (bps) to 4.00%.
The transition into the post-pandemic world
It is remarkable the extent to which the future is hidden from us. We all conduct our lives largely in terms of our experiences in the recent past, assuming...
Global economic recovery slower and more complex than expected
The global recovery from the severe economic contraction in the first half of 2020, which followed the initial outbreak of the pandemic, has proved to be bot...
The divided Committee draws a line in the sand, but gradually
At the November meeting of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC), South Africa’s repo rate was raised by 25 basis points (bps) to 3.75%. The recent dissenting...
Q&A with Allan Gray portfolio managers
At a recent Allan Gray local investment update, chief investment officer, Duncan Artus, facilitated a robust discussion with portfolio managers, Thalia...
How to invest for the possibility of higher inflation and interest rates
The probability that the world is moving into an environment of higher inflation is increasing. An inflationary environment requires investors to think...
Orbis: Inflation – the bottom-up case for caution
If headlines are to be believed, people are gravely concerned that inflation will rise. If market prices are to be believed, people are quietly convinced tha...
Can we expect an interest rate hike in November?
South Africa should prepare for interest rate hikes given the rising inflationary pressures and global energy shortage currently unfolding. Thalia Petousis...
Economic recovery accompanied by a surge in inflation
With increasing vaccinations economic activity is returning to pre-pandemic levels and, while there may be further waves of infection, governments are learni...
Active management: Potential for a comeback in a divided inflationary world
For most of the 2000s, the developed world has been characterised by disinflation and falling interest rates. This is despite a large increase in leverage, t...
Inflation returns
Prices are on the up in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic. The question is, will deflationary conditions resume as global economic conditions normalise or is...
MPC rates decision: Where to from here?
The South African Reserve Bank’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) today made the unanimous decision to keep the repo rate unchanged at 3.5%.
Q&A with portfolio managers from Allan Gray and Orbis 2021
The global recovery is underway as markets rebound from their March 2020 lows, but the current pandemic is far from over, leaving many investors questioning...
Sitting at the bottom of the interest rate cycle, potentially for much longer
The South African Reserve Bank’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) voted in May 2021 to again keep the repo rate unchanged at 3.5%, its lowest level since the...
Where to from here for interest rates and money market returns?
Lower interest rates, although a life jacket for those in debt or with home loans, have negative consequences for savers.
Global recovery underway
The world is recovering from the pandemic and 2021 should see strong global economic growth. The epicentre of the recovery is now the United States, where th...
The state of the economy
In a recent Q&A-style webinar hosted by Allan Gray’s Vuyo Nogantshi, Allan Gray’s Sandy McGregor and the Reserve Bank’s Rashad Cassim and David Fowkes examin...
The dangers of printing money
Modern Monetary Theory, or MMT as it is often called, is a new term for an old idea. Its proponents argue that a state which issues fiat money does not have ...
Money lessons from the arcade
Throughout Heritage Month, South Africans are encouraged to celebrate their culture and the diversity of their beliefs, histories, and traditions. In the...
Q&A: Understanding the economic context in which we must invest
As investors, we must understand the economic consequences of COVID-19 and the impact on different asset classes. Grant Pitt, joint head of Institutional...
The monetary and fiscal response to the COVID-19 crisis
The Coronavirus pandemic has caused a massive disruption of global economic activity without peacetime precedent. In a presentation via Zoom webinar, Sandy...
The world after the COVID-19 pandemic
We are witnessing a global economic collapse without precedent in modern times. As investors we must think about what the world will look like when the...
2020 Budget: Managing the wage bill and fixing Eskom's credibility
The National Treasury faces formidable challenges in preparing the Budget for the 2020/21 fiscal year, which will be presented on 26 February. Projections...
Inflation
Inflation is a phenomenon of great importance to investors. It is subject to intense scrutiny but is not well understood. Sandy McGregor offers his perspecti...
Global growth slows
Over the past year, global economic growth has slowed. International trade volumes have contracted. This slowdown has many causes but has been significantly...
How not to break the bank this festive season
The end of 2019 is fast approaching and with many looking forward to downtime during the festive season, this shouldn’t mean breaking the bank, according to...
Making sense of the rand
Like other emerging market currencies, the rand has seen periods of prolonged fluctuation since September 2018 but has remained relatively stable over time....
Trade wars
In recent months, we have observed increasing uncertainty and concern among our clients about what impact rising international tensions, particularly the tra...
PART 3: What are the best investment options for education savings?
With the cost of education soaring, relying purely on your salary to finance your children’s education is becoming increasingly difficult. Consider saving fo...
PART 1: How to overcome the growing cost of education
Do you feel overwhelmed at the thought of how you will finance your children’s education? You are not alone. We all want to empower our children by giving th...
PART 2: Saving for education – later is still better than never
When it comes to paying for the best education for your child, making small sacrifices early on and taking a long-term approach to investing is the smart thi...
Global business conditions deteriorate
Negative news about the global economy persists. Purchasing manager indices continue to signal a widespread deterioration in business conditions. Even in the...
Is a money market fund right for you right now?
Money market unit trusts have become popular as they appear to provide a safe, secure and reliable haven for your investments. During times with extreme...
Global economy losing momentum
After two years of strong synchronous growth the global economy is losing momentum. Almost without exception the most recent purchasing manager’s indices are...
SA needs to unlock its 'demographic dividend' by getting the private sector to invest
South Africa needs to stop looking to government spending as the catalyst for economic growth and should instead foster a more conducive environment for...
Business confidence improves in South Africa
After 18 months of accelerating growth, the momentum of the expansion of the global economy slowed in the first quarter of 2018. It is noteworthy that an...
Facing a fiscal crisis
The synchronised global economic expansion continues to gain momentum. World trade is growing and increasing demand is putting upward pressure on commodity...
Invest in stocks with dividends, but put stop losses in place
It is always a good time to invest, the question is where...
SA economy in the doldrums as the rest of the world picks up
Since January, domestic demand in South Africa has been very weak, the clearest evidence of which has been poor retail sales. The consumer is no longer in a...
The winds of change
While the election of Donald Trump as the next president of the United States was not expected by investors, it does not seem to have been unwelcome: both t...
Money Market Fund update: Rising inflation and low growth continue to cause concern
Global yields have fallen after Brexit became a reality when the UK voted to leave the EU. This uncertainty has decreased the expectation that the US Federal...
Stable Fund update: How to invest in ‘interesting’ times
‘May you live in interesting times' is an English expression which many believe to be a translation of a traditional Chinese curse. The expression seems to...
The economic consequences of political decisions
The vote by the British electorate in support of leaving the European Union (EU) took markets by surprise. The immediate impact was a strengthening of the US...
Uncertainty persists
The increased uncertainty that arose in December of last year has persisted throughout the first quarter of 2016. The current political climate and the threa...
Saving in a rising interest rate environment 2015
The South African Reserve bank has announced an interest rate increase from 6% to 6.25% confirming that the country is in a rising interest rate cycle. Whi...
Understand the impact of inflation
There are different types of investment risks, some more obvious than others. One risk that people often forget about is the risk that their invested money...
Consider your lifestyle inflation when saving for retirement
While most investors seem to understand the need to contribute consistently to their retirement funds, and to start saving as early as possible, many investo...
Make sustainability a priority when planning your retirement income
Over the last 20 years pension funds have increasingly passed the responsibility for generating income after retirement on to retirees and insurers, rather...
Investing for education
As Wanita Isaacs joins the ranks of parents investigating ways to afford the best possible education for their children, she learns that, although long-term...
Planning for income post retirement
If you are knocking at 60's door and fall into the small minority of South Africans who have saved enough to retire comfortably, you may be planning your...
Delayed gratification is priceless
Acknowledging your future financial needs and making concrete plans to meet these is a discipline that will benefit you and your family enormously. It is the...
It is worthwhile starting to save early - a little can go a long way
You can substantially improve your financial situation if you start saving sooner rather than later and you will be a step closer to being financially...
The long-term outlook for the South African bond market
As a bond investor you need to ask yourself two questions: are your inflation expectations reasonable, and will the potential real return be sufficient? Andr...
Deflation
It seems the world may divide into two distinct camps: the mature economies gripped by deflation and stagnation, and the emerging markets, which continue to...
