Duncan Artus

Duncan Artus

Duncan was appointed chief investment officer in 2020. He joined Allan Gray in 2001 and was appointed as a portfolio manager in 2005. He manages a portion of the equity, balanced and stable portfolios. He is also a director of Allan Gray Group Proprietary Limited and Allan Gray Proprietary Limited. Duncan holds an Honours degree in Business Science and a Postgraduate Diploma in Accounting from the University of Cape Town and is a CFA® and CMT® charterholder.

Articles by Duncan Artus

Insights categories - Local investing

How we balance the upside-downside risk in South African equities

By Duncan Artus on 08 Aug 2024

Reading time: 7 mins

We often write about large individual equity positions in our portfolios, but this quarter, Duncan Artus focuses on the opportunities and risks in “SA Inc” –...

Insights categories - ESG

Advocating for shareholder rights since 1973

By Duncan Artus on 31 Jul 2024

Reading time: 8 mins

Operating for five decades is a significant milestone for any business and it has provided us with a meaningful opportunity to reflect on the history of our...

Insights category - companies

Disney: The value of strong intellectual property in a changing world

By Duncan Artus and Siphesihle Zwane on 02 May 2024

Reading time: 12 mins

Since March 2022, local unit trusts have been able to allocate up to 45% of their portfolios anywhere outside South Africa. The increase in offshore limits i...

Insights categories - Local investing

2024: What will the election year hold?

By Duncan Artus on 30 Jan 2024

Viewing time: 7 mins

From macroeconomic decisions to political outcomes, markets – and sentiment – can be temporarily influenced by various external factors. If 2023 will be...

Insights categories - Investment insights

How to be a little less wrong – with James Aitken

By Duncan Artus on 16 Nov 2023

Listening time: 56 mins

When it comes to investing, marginal improvements can make a significant difference to investment returns over time. In conversation with Allan Gray’s chief...

Insights categories - Investment insights

Personal reflections on what makes a great asset manager over the long term

By Duncan Artus on 16 Nov 2023

Reading time: 12 mins

Given that we are in our 50th year of existence, Duncan Artus, who has been working at Allan Gray for over 22 years, reflects on what he believes makes a gre...

Insights categories - ESG

Taking stock of our stewardship efforts

By Duncan Artus on 06 Jun 2023

Reading time: 6 mins

At Allan Gray, we aim to be a great asset manager that integrates ESG well in our approach and decision-making, rather than an ESG-focused company that manag...

Insights categories - Local investing

Was 2022 a secular turning point and if so, what does it mean for the years ahead?

By Duncan Artus on 26 Jan 2023

Viewing time: 12 Mins

In his first investment update of 2023, Duncan Artus discusses the current investment context and how it differs from the past, shares a review of 2022 and...

Insights categories - Local investing

Investment update: How to invest in a changing world

By Duncan Artus on 01 Dec 2022

Viewing time: 27 Mins

At Allan Gray we are bottom-up investors, but we want to be on the right side of long-term trends, particularly at secular turning points. During the recent...

Insights categories - Local investing

How to invest in an inflationary, energy-short and increasingly divided world

By Duncan Artus on 06 Oct 2022

Reading time: 6 mins

At Allan Gray, we are bottom-up investors, but we want to be on the right side of long-term trends, particularly at secular turning points. One way is to...

Insights categories - Local investing

Local investment update: Always pay the right price

By Duncan Artus and Jacques Plaut on 03 Jun 2022

Viewing time: 26 min

Jacques Plaut and Duncan Artus discuss the positioning of our equity and multi-asset funds given the pre-existing trends exacerbated by the war in Ukraine....

Insights categories - Local investing

Preparing for more uncertainty and volatility

By Duncan Artus on 31 Jan 2022

Reading time: 10 mins

A look back over the last two years reveals how difficult forecasting is. Even with perfect foresight of the pandemic context, one would not have been able t...

Insights categories - Local investing

Q&A with Allan Gray portfolio managers

By Duncan Artus on 17 Nov 2021

Viewing time: 1 min

At a recent Allan Gray local investment update, chief investment officer, Duncan Artus, facilitated a robust discussion with portfolio managers, Thalia...

Insights categories - Local investing

How to invest for the possibility of higher inflation and interest rates

By Duncan Artus on 17 Nov 2021

Viewing time: 7 mins

The probability that the world is moving into an environment of higher inflation is increasing. An inflationary environment requires investors to think...

Insights categories - Local investing

Active management: Potential for a comeback in a divided inflationary world

By Duncan Artus on 23 Sep 2021

Viewing time: 7 mins

For most of the 2000s, the developed world has been characterised by disinflation and falling interest rates. This is despite a large increase in leverage, t...

Insights categories - Local investing

Market update: Weighing up opportunity and risk in the face of volatility

By Duncan Artus on 23 Aug 2021

Listening time: 25 mins

While the local market has been strong, South African assets still look cheap overall compared to many of their global counterparts. There is opportunity in...

Insights categories - Local investing

Investment update: Taking advantage of disparities in the market

By Duncan Artus on 21 Jan 2021

Viewing time: 12 mins

One of the key preconditions for successful active management is the level of disparity in the markets. Duncan Artus discusses this in our first video and...

Insights categories - Local investing

Allan Gray Stable Fund turns 20

By Sean Munsie and Duncan Artus on 01 Sep 2020

Reading time: 7 mins

Over the last two decades, the Allan Gray Stable Fund has built a solid track record through dynamic asset allocation, bottom-up stock-picking and mindful ri...

Insights categories - Local investing

Equity Fund update: In pursuit of potential

By Duncan Artus on 03 Aug 2020

Reading time: 9 mins

The most important determinant of investment success is the price you pay for an asset, and valuations for many quality companies are the cheapest they have...

Insights categories - Markets and economy

COVID-19: Portfolio, economic and investment update

By Duncan Artus on 01 Jun 2020

Reading time: 1 min

During February and March, we were active in both the local equity and fixed income markets. This activity reduced during April and May, as we believed the...

Insights categories - Local investing

Investing during lockdown and beyond

By Duncan Artus on 25 May 2020

Reading time: 4 mins

Sometimes in investing, the best thing to do is nothing. In a presentation to advisers and clients via Zoom webinar, Duncan Artus examined the levels and...

Insights categories - Markets and economy

COVID-19: Evaluating market risk versus opportunity

By Duncan Artus on 25 Mar 2020

Viewing time: 1 min

We have managed our portfolios through a range of different crises since 1974. Over the last 20 years, the dotcom collapse in 2001/02, the global financial...

Insights categories - Local investing

Two decades for the Allan Gray Balanced Fund

By Duncan Artus on 07 Nov 2019

Reading time: 7 mins

The Allan Gray Balanced Fund celebrated its 20-year anniversary on 1 October 2019. The local industry looks vastly different today to how it looked two decad...

Insights categories - Offshore investing

Q&A: Understanding Orbis’ performance and potential

By Duncan Artus and Edward Blain on 28 Oct 2019

Reading time: 11 mins

Market breadth has been very narrow offshore, with few winners and many losers. Among the losers have been emerging markets and select cyclicals. At the same...

Insights categories - Local investing

Negativity can often present opportunity

By Duncan Artus on 23 Oct 2019

Reading time: 5 mins

With doom and gloom pervading locally, and the world economy slowing, you may be feeling like the safest place for your money is under your mattress. This is...

Insights categories - Local investing

Is it time for equity investors to party like it’s 2002?

By Duncan Artus on 30 Jul 2019

Reading time: 4 mins

Not quite, says Duncan Artus.

Insights categories - Local investing

Is it 2002 all over again? Not quite

By Duncan Artus on 29 Jul 2019

Reading time: 6 mins

Domestically focused shares that are exposed to the local economy have underperformed the overall market. Duncan Artus investigates whether the current...

Insights categories - Local investing

The dash for cash

By Duncan Artus and Nathan Wridgway on 28 Feb 2019

Reading time: 4 mins

The end of the calendar year often leads to reflection on how one’s investments have performed. Many savers are questioning the wisdom of investing in South...

Insights categories - Local investing

The year of payback

By Duncan Artus on 15 Feb 2019

Reading time: 4 mins

Excess returns from the FTSE/JSE All Share Index (ALSI) relative to cash have disappointed over the last five years, with cash now outperforming, on average....

Insights categories - Markets and economy

A volatile quarter for emerging market equity and currency markets

By Duncan Artus on 12 Oct 2018

Reading time: 4 mins

Emerging market equity and currency markets had a very volatile quarter. Vulnerabilities, both economic and political, are being exposed as global financial...

Insights categories - Investment insights

How to spot investment red flags

By Duncan Artus on 03 Aug 2018

Reading time: 5 mins

South Africa has been rocked by a series of corporate scandals in recent years that have sent the share prices of former blue-chip companies like Steinhoff a...

Insights categories - Local investing

Structural challenges to business models

By Duncan Artus and Tim Acker on 15 Jun 2018

Reading time: 4 mins

At the core of our investment philosophy we look for companies we believe are priced below our estimate of their true worth and sell them when they reach fai...

Insights categories - Local investing

Are you overly exposed to China?

By Duncan Artus on 13 Jun 2018

Reading time: 7 mins

As South African investors we are very tuned into the local political and economic risks that we face. But what about the less obvious risks?

Insights categories - Local investing

Equity Fund update: Focus turns to locally listed international businesses

By Duncan Artus on 04 May 2018

Reading time: 3 mins

The market had a volatile first quarter with positive sentiment towards South African equities continuing against a backdrop of volatile international market...

Insights categories - Local investing

How are our portfolios positioned to protect and grow our clients' capital?

By Duncan Artus on 24 Jan 2018

Reading time: 7 mins

Regular readers of our commentaries would have noted that we have found an increasing number of attractive opportunities in local equities over the last 18...

Insights categories - Local investing

Balanced Fund update: An increased weighting towards local stocks

By Duncan Artus on 23 Oct 2017

Reading time: 3 mins

The local equity market had a strong quarter, breaking out to new highs despite all the negative news headlines. Many investors forget that the FTSE/JSE All...

Insights categories - Local investing

Equity Fund update: Investing in the shade of unnerving political headlines

By Duncan Artus on 13 Jan 2017

Reading time: 3 mins

The year 2016 will be remembered by investors as one in which politics dominated the headlines. But what do we make of it all as investors trying to focus on...

Insights categories - Investment insights

What to focus on when choosing shares and other assets

By Duncan Artus on 18 Nov 2016

Listening time: 15 mins

How do you distinguish a good investment from a lemon? And how do you create a well-diversified portfolio? Listen to this 15-minute interview on PowerFM...

Insights categories - Local investing

Restructurings as a source of excess returns

By Duncan Artus on 30 Jun 2016

Reading time: 7 mins

We are always on the lookout for opportunities offered by the potential restructuring of companies. They can often generate attractive returns with a...

Insights categories - Markets and economy

Managing portfolios in times of uncertainty

By Duncan Artus on 24 Jun 2016

Reading time: 4 mins

My inbox is filling up with commentary about the impact of Brexit. Some of the commentary is of debatable long-term value and with news of this nature it tak...

Insights categories - Markets and economy

Consumption trends in emerging markets: Opportunities and pitfalls

By Duncan Artus and Tamryn Lamb on 23 Nov 2015

Reading time: 4 mins

Looking to capitalise on the rise of the emerging market consumer? Beware of the potential pitfalls .

Insights category - companies

Changing the odds

By Duncan Artus on 30 Sep 2014

Reading time: 6 mins

Sun International, South Africa's second largest casino and resort operator, is undergoing significant change after a number of years of underperformance....

Insights categories - Markets and economy

A simple checklist for domestic asset allocation

By Duncan Artus on 07 Aug 2013

Reading time: 5 mins

I recently read the fascinating book ‘The Success Equation: Untangling luck in Business, Sports and Investing’1, which explores, how much of one’s success or...

Insights categories - Markets and economy

The nature of contrarian investing

By Duncan Artus on 31 Dec 2012

Reading time: 7 mins

The average investor cannot avoid being bullish at market tops and bearish at bottoms. This produces periods of speculation and panic within the normal up an...

Insights categories - Markets and economy

The trend is your friend till it bends at the end

By Duncan Artus on 24 May 2012

Reading time: 4 mins

For some time we have been concerned about the sustainability and unbalanced nature of consumption growth in South Africa. I don’t believe you can consume,...

Insights category - companies

Insurance: better than you think

By Duncan Artus and Leonard Krüger on 31 Mar 2012

Reading time: 7 mins

We have previously set out the reasons Sanlam has an above-benchmark position in our clients’ portfolios (see Quarterly Commentary 1, 2010). On a...

Insights categories - Markets and economy

Can the level of interest rates be used to reliably predict investment returns?

By Duncan Artus on 13 Jul 2011

Reading time: 4 mins

Local and global short-term interest rates are at low levels. This has led to questions about the rationale for holding cash both locally and offshore. We ha...

Insights categories - Investment insights

Happy equilibrium

By Duncan Artus on 30 Sep 2010

Reading time: 7 mins

Duncan Artus discusses the implications of the growth in the local asset management industry being focused on asset managers who variously describe their...

Insights categories - Markets and economy

Another view

By Duncan Artus on 31 Dec 2009

Reading time: 7 mins

Governments around the world are engaged in significant fiscal and monetary stimulus. But there is some doubt about whether their efforts will improve the re...

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