Thalia Petousis
Articles by Thalia Petousis
Rethinking global inflation and rates after the 2024 super-election year
The introduction of the Allan Gray Income Fund in May 2024 has broadened Allan Gray’s offering, providing a more comprehensive selection of lower-risk...
The bonfire of the incumbents
As we commented early in 2024, global dissatisfaction regarding inflation and harsh economic realities has coincided with the phenomenon of a spike in the...
Rate-cutting cycle kicks off
During the last quarter, US equity indices reached new all-time highs as the US Federal Reserve (the Fed) commenced its rate-cutting cycle with a cut of 50...
After four years, South Africa gets repo rate relief
On 19 September, the South African Reserve Bank (SARB) cut interest rates for the first time in four years – lowering the overnight rate of interest from 8.2...
Election fever seizes the globe
According to Deutsche Bank, 2024 will see the most people vote in a single year in recorded history. As speculation fuels heightened uncertainty around the...
The trillion-dollar endgame
The US government has dug itself into a debt hole. With spending being its go-to solution for most problems, it is unclear how the situation will be resolved...
What’s in store for interest rates in 2024?
Over the course of 2023, the South African Reserve Bank (SARB) raised the overnight repo rate from 7.00% to a 14-year high of 8.25%.
Geopolitical and fiscal pressures mount as a major global election year kicks off
The market seemed determined to end 2023 on a hopeful note, unwinding the intra-year losses in global stock and bond indices. The rationale rests in the eage...
The inflation conversation is far from over
If the history of debt markets repeats itself, we are now in year three of a new multi-decade bear market for bonds.
The problem with a 12% yield
The notion of a government bond trading at a 12% yield can sound very appealing, but it poses several issues.
Shedding dark on the issue of South Africa’s economic growth
South African companies are reallocating billions of rands towards the extraordinary costs associated with loadshedding. Government’s prospects for debt...
Higher-than-expected rate hike improves South Africa’s attractiveness for investors
A repo rate hike of 50 basis points (bps) to 7.75% was announced by South African Reserve Bank Governor Lesetja Kganyago on Thursday, 30 March, at the Moneta...
The new normal: What lies ahead?
In the latest episode of The Allan Gray Podcast, portfolio manager Thalia Petousis and Sandy McGregor reflect on a range of macroeconomic issues as they...
The 2023 Budget: A crisis of credibility in the outer years of the forecast
Thalia Petousis, portfolio manager at Allan Gray, shares her views on the challenges of putting together a credible national budget
Are inflation-beating returns on the horizon for money market investors in 2023?
The 2022 calendar year was undeniably one of meaningful financial market upheaval, worsened by negative portfolio returns of a quantum that many investors ha...
The price of money, the shortage of energy, and the monster of inflation
Thalia Petousis discusses its impact on financial markets, global trade financing and the energy sector, as well as how central banks are now waging a war...
On the commodity boom and other South African fables (and foibles)
Just as the economic destruction from the COVID-19 pandemic rose to crisis levels, strong commodity export prices swept in to alleviate South Africa’s fiscal...
Podcast: Can optimism rise from the inflationary ashes?
In conversation with portfolio manager, Thalia Petousis, Sandy McGregor reflects on the very real geopolitical and economic challenges currently affecting th...
The SARB hikes rates as food inflation threatens to erode the income of the working class
Raising rates by 50-basis points to take the SA repo rate to 4.75%, the South African Reserve Bank (SARB) delivered what may have been a ‘credibility move’....
Food price inflation: Are we watching “That ‘70s Show”?
Unaffordable food and fuel prices are raising developed market consumer inflation to multi-decade highs, while the Federal Reserve recently announced a...
The long road to debt reform: SA’s Budget underwhelms bond investors
Despite the positivity priced into the Budget from the much-publicised tax revenue overruns, the outcome has positively underwhelmed South African bond...
‘Hopeful Budget’ may strike right notes, but tax clarity and economic reforms are needed
This year’s Budget speech, set to be delivered on 23 February by Finance Minister Enoch Godongwana, is likely to strike an optimistic chord thanks to a numbe...
Sticking to the slow and steady path of normalisation, for now
At the January meeting of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC), South Africa’s repo rate was raised by another 25 basis points (bps) to 4.00%.
The divided Committee draws a line in the sand, but gradually
At the November meeting of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC), South Africa’s repo rate was raised by 25 basis points (bps) to 3.75%. The recent dissenting...
Can we expect an interest rate hike in November?
South Africa should prepare for interest rate hikes given the rising inflationary pressures and global energy shortage currently unfolding. Thalia Petousis...
How we approach fixed interest
Aside from our dedicated local fixed interest funds, being the Allan Gray Money Market Fund and the Allan Gray Bond Fund, we also invest in fixed interest...
MPC rates decision: Where to from here?
The South African Reserve Bank’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) today made the unanimous decision to keep the repo rate unchanged at 3.5%.
Sitting at the bottom of the interest rate cycle, potentially for much longer
The South African Reserve Bank’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) voted in May 2021 to again keep the repo rate unchanged at 3.5%, its lowest level since the...
Where to from here for interest rates and money market returns?
Lower interest rates, although a life jacket for those in debt or with home loans, have negative consequences for savers.
Anaemic rate environment for money market funds
We have undoubtedly entered a difficult period for money market funds, with the overnight repo rate at its lowest in South Africa’s history. Meanwhile, other...
